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Lake Forest's Secret Millionaire and the power of compounding

Monday, March 08, 2010

Much has been made recently about the story of Grace Groner.  For good reason.  If you're unfamiliar, Ms. Groner died last week at the age of 100.  While working at Abbott Labs, she bought 3 shares of stock in 1935, reinvested the dividends, and lived within her means for the rest of her life.  That investment is now worth $7 million, which she has donated to her alma mater.

There are a couple of interesting story lines associated with this.  Most of them center on frugality and charity.  Again, deservedly so. This is a great lesson in both.  Although she doesn't perfectly fit the mold, Grace Groner's behavior would have made her a good subject for Thomas Stanley's The Millionaire Next Door series.

There are a couple of other vectors here that are interesting, though.  In his Wealth Report column, Robert Frank highlights one of them, which involves the power and risk of putting all one's eggs in one investing basket, especially when that basket belongs to your employer.  He points out that luck played a big role here.

In reality, though, if she had invested in the broader market, she would have enjoyed impressive returns as well.  But how impressive?  That is the story line that is most instructive, and it involves the power of compounding, which is coincidentally a favorite topic of this blog.

Let's look at some data.  In 1935, stocks were up 46.74%.  That's a nice way to launch a long-term investment.  The next year, the market was up 31.94%.  In other words, if Grace Groner would have invested in a broad stock index fund on January 1, 1935 (had they existed then), she would have almost doubled her money after two years!  Of course, the market is a volatile beast, and 1937's 35.34% drop was undoubtedly a good reminder.  Nonetheless, from 1935 through 2009, the average broad stock market return was 12.23%, according to the Federal Reserve's numbers.  What was Grace Groner's return?  By my calculation, it was just under 15.4%, with full reinvestment of dividends, etc.  That is what allowed Ms. Groner to donate $7 million to Lake Forest College.

But what about Robert Frank's assertion that luck played a huge role in her investing success?  How much would she have been able to donate to Lake Forest if she had instead been able to invest in the broad market for 75 years? $919,042.85!  In other words, the difference between a 12.2% and a 15.4% per year average return on a $180 investment for 75 years is more than $6 million and almost 87% of the final value of the investment.

That leads me back to two fundamental points:  1) the power of compounding cannot be overstated, and investing early is a huge advantage if one is hoping to build wealth, and consequently 2) finding inexpensive investment vehicles makes a huge difference, provided the associated returns are similar.  If Ms. Groner had paid 100 basis points, or 1%, for management of her Abbott investment, she would have ended up with a bit less than $3.8 million.

Tags: power of compounding, grace groner

General Personal Finance | Retirement Planning | Stocks

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Favorite concepts from The Millionaire Next Door

Friday, February 26, 2010

I resisted reading The Millionaire Next Door for a long time, because the title led me to the assumption that it was a get-rich-quick tome.  I was very wrong about that, and I was disappointed that I waited so long.  I’ve now read the book twice.  To be precise, on both cases I listened to an audio version that I purchase from Audible.com, a favorite service of mine.  Far from being a book in the genre of Rich Dad, Poor Dad and its ilk, the book, written by Thomas J. Stanley, Ph.D. and William D. Danko, Ph.D, grew out of hard research they had performed about the affluent in America.

I should point out that a premise of the book seems to be that achieving millionaire status is an important goal and worthy of focus.  Not all readers would deem that a worthy goal.  Nonetheless, there are lessons in this book about financial comfort and independence that are universally applicable.  The impact of stress on our immune systems and overall health is undeniable.  An Ohio State University study has found that money-related stress had a stronger link to depression symptoms among breast cancer patients than even stress related to the recent death or illness of a loved one!  Living within our means is a sure way to reduce our stress, and that is the underlying message that I took from this book.

Before I go any further, I should stress that the book was originally published in 1996, and one million dollars went a bit further then.  We’ve had three significant shocks to the financial system in the interim!  Alas, the lessons still apply, even if some of the statistics are outdated.  In fact, applying the concepts in this book would have saved a lot of people some pain over the last couple of years.

There are a few fundamental concepts that I think are important.  Beyond that, I highly recommend getting this book (preferably at the library) and reading it closely.

The basic thrust of the book is that the average millionaire in the United States probably does not fit the profile that most people imagine when they think of millionaires.

What is wealthy?

The authors appropriately define wealth in terms of net worth rather than the number of expensive vehicles in the garage or the size of the house.  In 1996, they used a crude, absolute threshold of $1 million in net worth to be considered “wealthy”.  In today’s dollars, that translates to something close to $1.4 million.  However, they define a much more informative measure that describes how wealthy a person should be given his or her age and income level.  The formula is as follows:

Expected wealth = Age multiplied by pretax annual income (from all sources except inheritance), divided by ten

This is a much more useful measure, as it factors in standard of living.  To a significant degree, this metric captures whether or not an individual is living within his or her means.

PAWs and UAWs

The authors highlight two categories of savers:  Prodigious Accumulators of Wealth and Under Accumulators of Wealth, or PAWs and UAWs.  Accumulating wealth at a rate greater than at least 75% of the population qualifies an individual as a PAW, while doing so at a pace that is less than 25% puts one in the UAW group.  To make this more universal, they offer a simpler rule:  your net worth should be twice the level of expected wealth to be a PAW, while less than half of the expected net worth would place you in the UAW range.  So, if you’re 35 and making $100,000 per year, your expected wealth is $350,000.  If your net worth exceeds $700,000, you’re a PAW.  If it is less than $175,000, you fall into the UAW category.

This highlights another distinction called out by the authors:  balance sheet affluent vs. income statement affluent.  Examples abound of doctors and lawyers making over $500,000 per year while having little in the way of sustainable assets to show for it.  More impressive are the examples of individuals who make less than $100,000 per year in earned income, but can never work another day and be comfortable.  It’s all about living within your means.  (In fairness, many examples of the latter case lived well below their means).

They earned it

Another interesting point was that 80% of the wealthy in this study were first-generation millionaires.  They did not inherit wealth.  However, the country clubs of America are littered with inheritors who are quickly blowing through the cash their parents have left them, with no means of replenishing it.

That brings us to the concept of economic outpatient care.  This was much more of a black-and-white issue for me before I had children, but the statistics are still very powerful.  Adult children who had received any kind of financial assistance from their parents suffered for it.  The authors “found that the giving of such gifts is the single most significant factor that explains lack of productivity among the adult children of the affluent."  In eight of ten occupations held by children of the affluent, households that received regular gifts had lower net worth than those who did not.  Overall, such individuals had an average of 81% of the wealth of their non-receiving counterparts, although this was skewed upward by teachers, who apparently used the gifts they received to build additional wealth.  Receivers of EOC invest less and use more credit.  They come to depend on the gifts as supplements to their income, and proceed to live at a higher level.

The book offers a lot of data that is very eye-opening, and it clearly demonstrates that the average wealthy individual is not driving around in a Ferrari.  However, the takeaway ideas are pretty straightforward and common sensical.  That doesn't mean they're easy to apply, though.  Reading this book really reinforces that common sense.  Similarly, Thomas J. Stanley's latest book - Stop Acting Rich - doesn't really present radical new concepts beyond those of The Millionaire Next Door.  It does, however, reinforce the concepts in much the same way as its predecessor.  It, too, is worth reading several times.

Tags: millioniare next door

General Personal Finance | Spending

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Why we get ripped off

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

I just read a somewhat provocative article by Liz Pulliam Weston entitled 4 Reasons we get ripped off, and I think you should read it, too.  It’s concise, but points to some actions that consumers can take to avoid falling prey to those who would take advantage of weakness, legal or illegal.

I’ll summarize the reasons here and provide my perspective.

Americans stink at math

No argument here, but this is pretty easily fixable.  The Department of Labor states that 58% of American adults cannot add 60 cents to $1.95 and calculate a 10% tip.  That is startling.  If you fall into this category, I recommend taking a remedial math class.  My guess is that elementary school students would fare a bit better in this survey, because they’re doing these kinds of calculations more frequently.

We don't recognize sociopaths

This reason is kind of depressing and little bit scary, but undoubtedly true.  In fact, I am not sure it is only  sociopaths about whom we should be concerned.  An even bigger concern for me is the number of salespeople who do not act in the best interest of their customers but feel that is the standard way of doing business.  Sometimes the lines are not so clear.  When you buy a car, the salesperson receives a commission, and it’s entirely appropriate for her to be compensated for her effort.  How much compensation is okay?  That’s a blurry line, but too often the answer is “as much as possible”.

In my business, the norm is probably to not act in the best interest of the client.  Most financial “advisors” are simply salespeople who are not obligated to act in their clients' best interests.  In this case, my recommendation – self-serving though it may seem – is to work with an advisor who is a fiduciary and thus is legally required to act in the best interest of the client.

In general, try to understand how a salesperson is compensated and what his or her incentives are.  Do they make more money pushing certain products over others?  Is it obvious what your total cost will be?  If any of this is unclear, ask!  Furthermore, before making a purchase of consequence, develop a plan and stick to it, including a budget for the purchase.  It is much harder to be persuaded to go beyond what makes sense when you’ve established firm boundaries.

Bait-and-switch capitalism is now the norm

This is definitely a problem.  I think it’s important to try to find alternatives whenever possible, including cancelling your service in favor of a more transparent one.  Most importantly, ask about the total cost up front.  You still may get a lie in response (back to the sociopath concern), but at least that will become obvious pretty quickly after the fact and you can take steps to rectify the situation then.

Half the police force has disappeared

There is a lot of debate in our society about the appropriateness of new legislation and the size of government. Certainly, the legislative framework in several areas is imperfect. Nonetheless, I think effective enforcement is a more important consideration at this stage.

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General Personal Finance | Spending

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Invest at a high rate of return - a simple illustration

Thursday, September 24, 2009

In two previous posts I illustrated the value of investing early and often.  Specifically, the earlier you start an investment plan, the more time it has to compound and grow into wealth.  More obviously, the more that is invested, the more there is to grow.  This illustration also demonstrates the power of compounding, by showing the difference between averaging a 7% rate of return over a long period of time, versus achieving a 10% rate of return.  The point is not to suggest that these rates of return represent two specific asset classes.  It merely shows how dramatically a 3% difference in average returns affects a long-term investment plan.  We’ll build on these themes in future posts when we discuss appropriate levels of risk.

7% vs 10% compounding illustration

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61% of US workers are living paycheck to paycheck

Monday, September 21, 2009

According to a nationwide survey that has just been released by CareerBuilder, 61% of workers always or usually live paycheck to paycheck.  What is more astounding to me is that the figure was 49% last year and 43% in 2007.  That is a tremendous change in two years.  Even 30% of six-figure earners live in this manner.

It’s not surprising that more people have been forced to manage in this fashion given the recent economy, but the magnitude of that change is significant.  Our aggregate savings rate in the US has increased over the past couple of years.  No doubt, interest rate resets on mortgages and credit cards have played a role.

Regardless of the reasons for this shift, it is important to note that living without a financial safety net is a pretty dicey way to manage personal finances.  Unemployment is high and may continue to rise for a little while.  Maintaining an emergency fund is critical to financial well-being, even in prosperous times for the general economy.  For some thoughts on building an emergency fund, review my Keep it simple blog post from February.

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General Personal Finance | Spending

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Invest often - a simple illustration

Monday, September 14, 2009

In my last post, I showed the power of starting to invest for retirement at age 25 versus age 35.  This time, we’ll look at the value of investing “a lot” rather than “a little” over a long period of time.  Specifically, the hypothetical 25 year-old who invests $2k per year until retirement at age 65 will end up with about $518k, assuming an average rate of return of 8%.  On the other hand, the investor who puts away $10k per year over the same time period will have almost $2.6m.

2k-vs-10k-compounding-illustration

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General Personal Finance | Retirement Planning

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Invest early - a simple illustration

Wednesday, September 09, 2009

I posted about this several years ago, but I think it bears repeating. It is pretty much a cliche at this point to say that the earlier one starts to invest for retirement, or anything else for that matter, the better. The following chart illustrates the point. An investor that invests $10k per year at an average rate of 8% starting at age 35 will have about $1.13m at age 65. If that investor had started at age 25, he or she would instead have almost $2.6m at retirement. Which investor would you rather be?

25-vs-35-compounding-illustration

Tags: invest early

General Personal Finance | Retirement Planning

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Extension of FDIC Deposit Insurance

Thursday, July 09, 2009

Last October, in part to ward off mounting fears over the safety of funds sitting in traditional banks, the FDIC deposit insurance limit was raised from $100,000 to $250,000 for total deposits for a given individual or family at a given bank.  In other words, as long as all amounts at a given bank total less than $250,000, the funds are completely insured.  This temporary increase in the amount that is insured was set to expire at the end of this year.  However, as part of the Helping Families Save Their Homes Act of 2009 signed on May 20, the $250,000 limit has been extended until December 31, 2013.

For more information on deposit insurance, see the FDIC web site.

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General Personal Finance

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Ron Lieber on What a Financial Planner Can Do for You

Thursday, February 26, 2009
Ron Lieber, the Your Money columnist for the New York Times, has begun a new series to help individuals improve their financial standing.  In the first entry of the series, Ron talks about why it makes sense to hire a financial planner.  In addition, he points out that using a fee-only planner is the way to go, and suggests consulting NAPFA and the Garrett Planning Network if you’re trying to find an “honest planner”.  Of course, this isn’t news at Foothills Financial Planning, but it’s great advice nonetheless.

Tags: garrett planning network

General Personal Finance

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Who Can Benefit Most from the Current Environment?

Sunday, December 21, 2008

As I pointed out in a parallel post, I recently drove from Chicago to Phoenix and had ample time to listen to podcasts and catch up with a range of financial and business news, among other things.  While listening to one of the several Wall Street Journal podcasts, I was startled to hear the narrator state that even Warren Buffett had been wrong about his recent call on the stock market.  If you didn’t catch the reference, it was a response to Buffett’s op-ed in the New York Times on October 16, in which he said that he is betting on American equities.  I suppose the point of the podcast was that the markets have been very volatile and unpredictable over the last few months.  Quite an insight.  What’s shocking to me is that Warren Buffett is undoubtedly the most scrutinized investor in history.  That is not hyperbole.  There have been other investors that have outperformed the market on a sustained basis, and I’m not even suggesting that Buffett is the most successful investor of all time.  That’s impossible to determine.  However, we’ve never had the multitude of channels of information that we now have.  Despite the irony of it, given his lifestyle, he is indeed a celebrity investor in a time of massive media access.  The point of all this is that most people who spend any time paying attention to the Buffett investing philosophy know that he wasn’t calling an absolute market low in October.  He was simply acting on the belief that the market as a whole was undervalued, and he was acting greedy in a time when others were acting out of fear.  Could it become more undervalued?  Maybe.  Could it gain 20% the day after he decided to jump in?  Perhaps.  Which, incidentally, would mean that he would have missed that upside had he not been in the market, which is the whole point of his article.

Before I continue, let me point out that one doesn’t have to be a Buffett observer to understand his perspective when he chose to buy into the US stock market.  His rationale wasn’t shrouded in Greenspan-like rhetoric.  To quote from the article:  “Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.”

So why is this aggravating to me?  I guess the real answer to that is that the media is perpetuating a sentiment of fear that feeds a cycle that can be dangerous to all of us.  From a more applied perspective, though, I think it causes people to act in a way that runs counter to what is in their best interest.  Without doubt, times are tough.  The question is, what are you going to do about it?  That brings us to the point of this post.  The discussion on the podcast set me to thinking about who is in a position to benefit from the current economic and psychological environment.  I’m not referring to what companies or industries do well in a down market, or which hedge funds are poised to reap the benefits of the fear that has swept substantially all of our markets.  I’m thinking more about individuals.  Many of us had a significant percentage of our assets in the stock market heading into this mess.  There are things we can do, especially at year-end, to harvest tax losses and such (see your financial advisor for help with this), but unless we’ve been sitting on cash for the last year or so, our net worth has decreased, probably by a lot.  In Warren Buffett’s case, the pile of money to which he was referring was in his own account, which is typically invested in government bonds.  In other words, he was sitting on a pile of money that was not ravaged by the recent stock market decline.  That’s nice for Warren Buffett and his heirs, but who else is in a position to take advantage of this situation?
Retirees are certainly the class that has been the hardest hit by this.  They have little opportunity to recover from an investment standpoint, and in many cases can do nothing to enhance their income at this point.  As retirement tends to last a lot longer than it used to, many retirees have had some exposure to the stock market, so they’ve felt some pain.

People nearing retirement are in a position that is similar to retirees, except that they may have a better chance to recover because their time horizon may be a bit longer, and they generally will have the option of working longer than they had planned.  Not a great scenario, but it’s good to have options.
Those of us who are in the accumulation period of our lives are better poised to benefit from the current scenario.  In general, we may have been hit hard by the declines in our 401ks and the 529 plans we’ve set up for our children’s education, but we’re also typically investing on a consistent basis, which means we’re taking advantage of some fantastic bargains at present.  I know it doesn’t feel very good right now, but people really do build wealth in times like these.  The worst thing we can do is put our money in cash equivalents or over-allocate to fixed income.  I will say that there are a lot of opportunities in bonds right now as well as stocks, however, and you should discuss that tradeoff with a financial advisor.

This brings me to group of individuals who I think are in the best position to establish a firm financial foundation for the future in this environment.  I’m going to be specific, but pieces of this are relevant those who share some attributes with the profile I’m specifying.  Young, dual income couples who are professionals and have not owned a house are in the sweet spot to benefit from this crisis.  The housing market is down, and the government really wants you to purchase a home.  That is not a new concept; there are powerful tax incentives for all homeowners.  But if you’re willing to buy before July 1, 2009, the federal government wants to give you an interest-free loan of $7500.  More on that later.  In addition, you’ll have two incomes to pay your bills, and you likely both have some sort of defined contribution retirement plan to which you can contribute, i.e. a 401k.  Here’s the thing:  as much as I’d appreciate you doing your part for the economy and buying that $50k BMW because you just got a big raise, don’t do it.  Get a used Toyota and invest your money.  It will probably be a while until we see a better time to invest, and how much happier will you really be with an expensive car?  Likewise the home electronics, etc.  Think hard about the personal utility you’re going to realize from the expenditures you make.  I’m not suggesting that your only concern should be building wealth, but I do believe that you have a unique window of opportunity to maximize your investments and establish a framework that can lead to financial freedom in your future.  There are some tremendous bargains in the stock market right now.  Ignore the news and invest aggressively with money you don’t need in the short term.

As for housing, in most parts of the country there are many opportunities for patient investors.  Unfortunately, some of these prizes come in the form of bank-owned properties that are the result of somebody else’s misfortune.  Regardless, the government wants to give you an additional $7500 on top of a mortgage deduction to stop paying rent and start building equity.  I say…do it.  You don’t have to buy your dream house at 25 years old.  If you’re savvy, you can buy a relatively inexpensive home to live in for a few years, and it can then become an investment property when you move on to something else.  I realize that $7500 is not a ton of money relative to home prices, but it’s a boost, and it goes a lot farther today than it did 2-3 years ago.  With that said, let’s talk a bit about the high-level parameters of this tax credit.

  • It’s only available for first-time homebuyers, or those who have not owned anything for at least three years.
  • The home must be, or have been, purchased between April 9, 2008 and July 1, 2009.
  • If you’re single, your income must be below $75k for the full credit.  If you’re married, combined income must fall below $150k.
  • This is essentially a loan.  You must pay it back, interest-free, over a 15 year period.

Of course, you shouldn’t over-extend yourself to purchase a home.  Keep your payments within 28% of your gross income.  Again, that should be much less problematic than it was a couple of years ago.

As I indicated earlier, if you share any attributes with the profile I’ve described, you’re a candidate to benefit now from this crisis.  Without question, there is a lot of fear impacting the economy right now, and it’s certainly not totally unfounded.  It is, however, very influential in terms of our overall economic health.  If people are too afraid to buy, companies don’t realize revenue, they have to lay off workers, unemployment rises, and things just get worse.  Today, the risks we face in most markets (i.e. the stock market, the housing market, the bond market) are significantly lower than they were a couple of years ago, when prices were astronomical relative to the intrinsic value of these assets.  That’s a simple concept, but very hard for most people to internalize.  If you can do that, you stand to build a strong financial foundation for your future.

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General Personal Finance | Real Estate | Retirement Planning

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